Despite recent economic turbulence, China business travel will increase by 61 percent over the next five years, from $261 billion in 2014 to $420 billion in 2019. That increase is greater than the increases in business travel growth in the next eight largest countries combined, including the U.S., Germany, India, U.K., Indonesia, France, Turkey and Japan.
These findings are part of an annual travel forecast released July 27 at GBTA Convention 2015 from the GBTA Foundation, which details business travel spending in 75 countries across 48 industries over 15 years, including a rolling five-year projection.
Overall, the GBTA BTI Outlook – Annual Global Report & Forecast, sponsored by Visa Inc. finds that global business travel spending will hit a record $1.25 trillion USD in 2015, 6.5 percent growth over 2014. Growth will remain strong through 2019, with business travel projected to grow 6.9 percent in 2016, 6.0 percent in 2017, 6.4 percent in 2018 and 5.8 percent in 2019.
“Despite recent economic speed bumps, China will pull away as the global leader in business travel over the next five years,” said GBTA Executive Director and COO Michael W. McCormick. “On the horizon, we’ve identified five nations that are also seeing extraordinary growth and could very well turn into the business travel markets of the future. Another market to watch is India, which is statistically where China was 15 years ago.”
The large majority of business travel spending in 2014 occurs in a few dominant markets. In fact, over two-thirds of total business travel spending continues to occur in the U.S., China and Western Europe. Currently Asia Pacific owns the largest share of the business travel spend market with 39 percent followed by North America with 27 percent and Western Europe with 24 percent. GBTA expects that by 2019, Asia Pacific will have gained another 3.5 percentage points in market share, while the United States and Western Europe will lose 2.7 percentage points and 0.6 percentage points, respectively.
India: The Next Big Thing?
GBTA’s Next 5 – The Business Travel Markets of the Future
The GBTA Foundation identified five newly emerging markets often overlooked because they aren’t as large as the traditional powers or the BRIC markets. Their rapid growth however, all but assures these five countries will become the business travel markets of the future.
Regional Projections – Asia Pacific Continues to Dominate; Western Europe Bouncing Back
The Annual Global Report & Forecast identified other key trends that could impact business travel over the next year, including political activity in emerging Europe and the cost of oil.
The GBTA BTI Outlook – Annual Global Report & Forecast report is available exclusively to GBTA members by clicking here and non-members may purchase the report through the GBTA Foundation by emailing pyachnes@gbtafoundation.org. To view an abstract of this research, click here.